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London . Just released data from the IWSR 2017-2021 Forecast suggests global volumes of whisky, gin and tequila are expected to make gains of 55.2m, 7.1m and 5.8m nine-litre cases respectively over the next five years, following their rapid growth in 2016. These categories together with baijiu (+48.2m cases between 2016 and 2021), will contribute the most in the overall total global spirits category growth, which is expected to reach 3.19bn cases by 2021.
Consumption of local whiskies in India continues to thrive; Scotch in India is also forecast to continue to be one of the largest growth segments. Globally, Scotch is forecast to contribute 10.5m cases to whisky growth over the next five years and US whiskies a further 8.9m cases. Other whiskies (predominantly Indian) will be the largest contributor, growing by 28.2m cases. The US is the second-largest growth market for whisky behind India, forecasting the strongest gains for US and Irish whiskey.
Tequila will also make its largest gains on the US market, with additional growth forecast in its domestic market, Mexico.
Despite being a top growth market for many categories, the total US alcohol market is forecast to decline by 37m cases over the next five years. The forecasted growth in wine, whisky and tequila is not enough to offset declines in beer, cider and mixed drinks.
Gin’s domestic market, the UK, has led the way for the gin revival. The huge range of brands now available on the UK market (likely to be over 700) offers plenty of room for consumers to experiment. The UK gin market is forecast to gain an additional 1.4m cases by 2021. Similar growth is expected in Spain and the US.
Baijiu is forecast to see the largest growth all of spirits categories over the next five years, benefiting from a growing economy in China and increased demand for business banquets.
Beer and wine* are forecast to gain the largest volumes in the overall alcohol market over the next five years, adding 139m and 76.5m cases respectively. The IWSR forecasts the strongest growth for beer in Mexico, India and Vietnam.
China and the US will see the largest growth in wine consumption over the next five years, with both local and imported wines winning over consumers.
The IWSR is widely seen as the most authoritative data source on the beverage alcohol market. The IWSR’s unique approach to forecasting has proven to be reliable. Comparing last year’s forecast for 2016 with actual 2016 data, the IWSR’s forecast at a global level differed by just 0.5% for wine and by just 0.3% for all spirits.
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