Markets are expected to see some profit booking next week after this week’s rally. Overall the investor’s sentiment is expected to remain positive as all remain are hopeful of an economic turnaround.  While the process of returning  Asia’s third largest economy back on the high growth trajectory is bound to be an extremely challenging task for the new Government, most investors now seem to believe that the worst seems to be over and the major sectors of the economy seem to be looking up.

The markets would primarily take cues from the IIP and inflation numbers expected to be announced early next week.

(Rajesh Agarwal Jindal is the Head of Research of Eastern Financiers Limited) 

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Luxury residential markets across Asia Pacific see limited price increases between July and September 

SINGAPORE, 05 December 2013:  The third quarter of 2013 saw limited price growth in monitored luxury residential markets in Asia Pacific, according to the latest Jones Lang LaSalle Residential Index.  While four of the nine featured markets saw minimal increases in capital values during the quarter, Hong Kong and Singapore reported quarterly declines, and the remainder recorded no change. On a yearly basis, growth remained strong for both Beijing and Jakarta, with both cities experiencing double digit growth; Hong Kong and Singapore registered price declines over the past 12 months and the rest of the markets saw growth that ranged from 2.4-6.0 percent.

After 10 quarters of strong growth, prices in Jakarta remained flat, leaving room for Beijing (1.6 percent) and Shanghai (1.5 percent) to lead the region in quarterly price increases, as a result of fewer projects coming to market. Healthy sales activity coupled with strong local demand saw Manila outperform its Southeast Asian peers, with quarterly growth of 0.8% in Q3.

However, Jakarta continues to outperform all monitored markets on an annual basis with 26.2 percent growth, followed by Beijing at 14.1 percent y-o-y. Of the nine monitored markets, Singapore saw the biggest quarterly (-0.4 percent) and annual (-2.5 percent) declines as tightening regulations on bank credit continued to affect investor sentiment. In Hong Kong, luxury residential prices also saw a marginal quarterly decline of 0.3 percent as sales volumes remain low due to buyer caution.

Commenting on the Hong Kong high end residential market, Joseph Tsang, Managing Director for Jones Lang LaSalle in Hong Kong said: “Buying demand for luxury residential properties remains weak, with monthly transaction volumes in Q3 falling to levels last seen during the Global Financial Crisis. Although prices have generally been holding up in the secondary market, we are starting to see signs of discounting in the primary market and expect prices to remain under pressure over the last quarter of the year and into 2014.”

With regard to Mumbai’s residential market performance, Anuj Puri, Chairman & Country Head, Jones Lang LaSalle India said: “In Mumbai, residential property prices have increased by 33% from the previous peak values of September 2008, and by 73% from previous trough values of September 2009. The luxury residential market was no exception to this ‘revival’. This is indeed high, and the window of opportunity for investing in residential properties in Mumbai remained for just about a year during the last trend reversal.”

“Currently, given the exceedingly high pricing and slow sales, we expect a marginal price correction in Mumbai’s residential property sector. However, the window of opportunity could be smaller than the previous one, since fence-sitting investors are jumping in quickly even with a modest price correction. Mumbai’s residential real estate market has always shown higher resistance for price moderation, largely because of the scarcity of land. Land cost often accounts for 3/4th of a project’s cost, and we are unable to unlock land in the peripheral regions that could effectively push housing demand away from the city. With insufficient and belated infrastructure, the city’s prime areas will continue to command premium valuations.”

Dr Jane Murray, Head of Research, Asia Pacific, Jones Lang LaSalle said: “Despite limited price increases across the region’s luxury residential market in Q3, we have still seen moderate to strong yearly growth in most markets. Looking forward to the remainder of the year and into 2014, we expect sales activity in Greater China and Singapore to stay at similar levels as investor sentiment continues to be affected by government tightening measures that are likely to remain in place for the next 12 months. Over the next year, emerging southeast Asian markets should continue to experience moderate price growth while we expect to see the strongest increases in Beijing and Shanghai as a result of resilient local demand.”

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Comments on RBI Policy by Mr. Amar Ambani, Head of Research, India Infoline Ltd. (IIFL)

‘Policy stalemate to continue’

• In line with market expectations, RBI left the repo rate and CRR unchanged at 7.25% and 4% respectively. The MSF rate was also left untouched at 300 bps above the repo rate.
• Although the current growth-inflation dynamics are unarguably supportive of easing stance, RBI’s caution and pause are driven by structurally high CAD and heightened risks around its financing amidst hardening US bond yields.
• The central bank re-emphasized that it remains ready to act proactively to manage risks to macro-financial stability and thereby to the currency. It states that recent liquidity tightening measures will be rolled back in a calibrated manner as stability is restored; thereby indicating that reversal of these steps is unlikely in the near-term. The policy strongly urges the Government to promptly institute structural measures to bring the CAD down to sustainable levels.
• We see monetary policy status-quo continuing till the next policy at least (on September 18) based on likelihood of sustained pressure on the rupee and CAD due to firm oil prices, weak exports, inadequate reform response by the government and higher US bond yields. So incremental policy rate reduction is likely to be back-ended in the current fiscal and could be limited to 50-75bps despite extremely supportive growth-inflation dynamics during the remainder of the year.
• In our view, cost of borrowings for commercial banks from RBI’s LAF window and intra-bank/CD route would remain elevated for the next few months. As deposits mobilization has been improving and credit demand weakening, banks may not be required to raise short-term FD rates. Consequently, we do not expect upward revision in Base Rates of banks.
• Though headline inflation has moderated to below 5%, the retail inflation has remained at an elevated level of near 10% due to stubborn food inflation. Above average monsoon is expected to ebb food inflation somewhat in the medium term. However, recent steep currency depreciation and upward revisions in fuel prices pose upside risks to both wholesale and consumer price inflation.
• Aggregate demand continues to be weak with deceleration in consumption and investment. Industrial growth remains subdued with supply-side bottlenecks constraining output of core industries. Service sector growth continues to moderate as suggest by concurrent and lead indicators. The only bright spot is an expected pick-up in agricultural growth on account of strong progress of monsoon. Due to persistent weakness in industrial and service sector activity, the GDP growth projection for FY14 has been revised downwards from 5.7% to 5.5%.

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11^th July, 2013 : Comments by Amar Ambani, Head of Research, India Infoline 

It was a solid day of trade today as the Sensex closed above 19,650 while the Nifty ended above 5,900 mark. No change in the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying program, which has kept long-term interest rates low and encouraged more borrowing and spending, prompted this rally. Chairman Ben Bernanke reserved his comments for July 17-19 when he will address the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee and Senate Banking Committee. Meanwhile, the minutes from the Fed’s June meeting showed many of the 12 Fed voting officials saying they need to see further improvement in the job market before mulling winding down the stimulus program.

In domestic cues, the rupee strengthened against the dollar in early trade. It appreciated above the 60 per dollar mark but huge dollar demand saw the Indian unit rally below the psychological level.

Today’s market rally was led by metals, banks, realty, capital goods and oil and gas stocks. Even midcap and smallcap stocks saw some buying momentum. Consumer durables bucked the trend, ending in the red.

The IT space was in focus today ahead of Infoys’ Q1 FY14 results. The stock rose 1.2% to close at Rs. 2,535 per share.

Speaking on his expectations for the IT bellwether, Amar Ambani, Head of Research at IIFL, sees Infosys posting a net sales of Rs. 108.55bn, a gain of 3.8% quarter-on-quarter. On the operating profit margin front, Ambani sees a 1.1% QoQ fall to 25.4%. He forecasts a 6.2% QoQ drop in net profit at Rs. 22.46bn. (Also see: Infy Q1 results on Fri: How should you trade the counter?)

The Sensex closed at 19,676, up 382 points, while the Nifty shut shop at 5,935, up 118 points over Wednesday’s close.

The advance-decline ratio favoured the bulls. On the Bombay Stock Exchange, 1,366 stocks advanced against 965 declines, while 148 stocks remained unchanged.

Volatility, as measured by India VIX, plummeted 5.5% at 18.89. It hit a day’s high of 19.98 and low of 18.13.

Stocks in News:

Sesa Goa, Hindalco, Bharti Airtel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, IndusInd Bank, TCS, Coal India, HDFC Bank and Bank of Baroda gained while L&T, Maruti, Ranbaxy and Tata Motors lost out.

Gammon India closed at Rs. 19.25, up 3.7%, on reports that the company is mulling the sale of its 185 acre property in Dombivli.

Bajaj Auto closed flat at Rs. 1,876.1 after the company launched two-wheeler Discover 125T. Meanwhile, talks between the management and workers failed to bear fruit and the 16-day strike at its Chakan plant continues.

Tata Steel added 1.8% and closed at Rs. 261.05 after its Indian operations saw robust volumes growth during the Q1 FY14.

Mangalore Chemicals & Fertilisers closed at Rs. 68, up Rs. 6.15 or almost 10%, on reports that Zuari Agro bought 41.4 lakh shares or an additional 3.5% stake in the company at Rs. 61 per share.

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10^th July, 2013 : Comments by Amar Ambani, Head of Research, India Infoline 

Mkt sheds gains on weak European cues, profit-booking

The Indian equity market ended near the day’s low on Wednesday erasing the day’s gains on weak European cues and profit-booking at higher levels. The Nifty barely managed to close above the 5800 mark while the Sensex ended below the 19,300 mark.

The indices opened with a positive gap on overnight gains in the US market and strong Asian indices. But the gains were short-lived as sentiment took a hit after output in eight key infrastructure industries slowed to an annual 2.3% in May as against 2.4% in April.

In economic news, gross direct tax collections for the April-June period rose 11.52% at Rs. 1.23 trillion as against Rs. 1.11 trillion in the same period last year. Gross corporate tax collection showed an increase of 7.82% at Rs. 76.12bn as against Rs. 70.59bn YoY.

Oil and gas, realty, auto, capital goods, metal and power stocks lagged while consumer durables, IT and telecom stocks gained. After Tuesday’s phenomenal run, mid-cap stocks were under pressure in trade today.

The Sensex closed at 19,294, down 145 points, while the Nifty shut shop at 5,817, down 42 points over Tuesday’s close.

The advance-decline ratio favoured the bulls. On the Bombay Stock Exchange, 1,145 stocks advanced against 1,170 declines. Only 144 stocks remained unchanged.

Volatility, as measured by India VIX, rose 3.5% to end at 19.32. It hit a day’s high of 20.11 and day’s low of 18.33.

Stocks in News:

Hindalco, BPCL, Bank of Baroda, M&M, Cairn India, IndusInd Bank, Tata Steel, Bajaj Auto and HDFC Bank lost out while Lupin, HCL Technologies, UltraTech Cement, NMDC, Tata Power, TCS, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Jindal Steel, Asian Paints and Maruti gained.

Index heavyweight Reliance Industries was in the limelight today. Reports suggest gas prices hike may be capped and RIL may have to deliver outstanding gas at the old price of $4.2/mmbtu. The stock declined by 2% to close at Rs. 856 per share.

Commenting on the same, Amar Ambani, Head of Research at IIFL, said the net asset value for RIL’s KG-D6 block will fall if the same is implemented. “We presume that production from new blocks such as NEC-25 and CBM fields will earn a revised higher price. We would await clarity from the Oil Ministry before building this into our estimates and valuations.”

In earnings today, IndusInd Bank’s Q1 FY14 net profit rose 42% year-on-year at Rs. 3.35bn. It has come in higher than IIFL’s expectations of Rs. 3.23bn. The bank’s net interest income is up 40% while net non-performing assets is down to 0.21% in the period under review. The stock closed 2.3% lower at Rs. 495.95 per share.

Jet Airways plummeted 3.5% to close at Rs. 418 after its Rs. 20.58mn deal with Abu Dhabi’s Etihad Airways came under the Central Vigilance Commission’s scanner. The latter is examining a complaint of alleged corruption.

Tata Steel declined 2.3% to close at Rs. 255 after it posted hot metal and crude steel production of 2.46 MT, up 20% YoY, and 2.22MT, up 22% YoY, respectively for Q1 FY14.

Tata Motors closed at Rs.284.55, down Rs. 4.55 or 1.5%, on reports that Jaguar Land Rover is coming up with a back up plan to offset the impact of a looming strike by employees at its logistics partner DHL.

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9^th July, 2013 : Comments by Amar Ambani, Head of Research, India Infoline

Tight range: Sensex, Nifty end with gains

It was a choppy Tuesday session with the benchmark indices trading in a narrow range. The Nifty traded in a tight band of 30 points while the same for the Sensex was 100 points.

The market opened with a positive gap but more or less languished for most part of the day. The Reserve Bank of India banned banks from proprietary trading in domestic currency futures and options late on Monday. Meanwhile, the Securities and Exchange Board of India doubled the margin requirement on the domestic dollar-rupee forward trade.

This was enough to stem the rupee’s weakness from its all-time record low of 61.20 hit on Monday and turnaround sentiment on D-Street. The rupee appreciated to 59.84 per dollar in early trade today but concerns of an early rollback in Fed stimulus programme saw the Indian unit weaken back to 60.35 levels.

Commenting on the same, Amar Ambani, Head of Research at IIFL, sees the rupee depreciating to 60.80 levels against the greenback with support of 59.90. “A breach of 59.90 levels, may see the rupee appreciating to 59.20 per dollar in the short-term.”

The Sensex finally ended the day at 19,439.48, up 114.71 points, while the Nifty shut shop up 47.45 points at 5,859 over Monday’s close.

Buying in select consumer durables, power, realty and banking stocks aided the rally. Also, a positive Asian and European market helped sentiment.

The major gainers in trade include PowerGrid up 4.32%, Sun Pharmaceutical (3.55%), Kotak Mahindra Bank (3.15%), Reliance Infrastructure (2.87%), Bank of Baroda (2.46%) and BHEL (2%). The losers pack included Jindal Steel down 2.1%, M&M (1.01%), Hindustan Unilever (0.78%), and Bharti (-0.66%)

The advance-decline ratio marginally favoured the bears. On the Bombay Stock Exchange, 1,312 stocks declined against 1,008 advances, while 130 stocks remained unchanged.

Volatility, as measured by India VIX, closed flat at 19.32 . It hit a day’s high of 19.53 and low of 18.41.

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8^th July, 2013 : Comments by Amar Ambani, Head of Research, India Infoline 

Fed rollback jitters give Indian markets a shiver

­The Indian equity market started the week off on a negative note with the Nifty once again shutting shop below the 200 Daily Moving Average. Weakness in Asian markets dragged the benchmark indices to open with a negative gap.

Sentiment further got dampened as the Indian currency hit yet another lifetime low on Monday, slipping past the psychological resistance level of 61 against the dollar. The rupee opened weak and plummeted to a record low of 61.20 against the dollar, surpassing its previous record low of 60.76 touched on June 26.

Positive unemployment data in the US has fuelled concerns that the Federal Reserve may rollback its stimulus programme earlier than expected. This resulted in equity and currency markets trading weak.

The Indian unit has lost more than 10% of its value this year and is the worst performing currency against all major emerging economies.

Every time the benchmark indices managed to stage a strong comeback, the bears resumed their onslaught. Their pullback rally was just not good enough for the market to close in the green.

The Sensex closed down 171 points at 19,324 while the Nifty closed at 5,812, down 56 points over Friday’s close.

The advance-decline ratio favoured the bears. On the Bombay Stock Exchange, 1,261 stocks declined against 1,053 advances. Only 117 stocks remained unchanged.

Volatility, as measured by India VIX, rose 3.5% to end at 19.34. It hit a day’s high of 19.85 and day’s low of 18.38.

FMCG, telecom and the IT stocks bucked the negative trend in trade today. On the other hand, the major laggards were oil and gas, PSU, realty, auto, metals and banking stocks.

In commodity news, June gold imports fell 80.56% to 31.5 tonne month-on-month. This indicates that the government’s measures to curb imports of hiking the import duty are working.

Telecom: The flavour of the day

The telecom space was in action today. Telecom major Bharti Airtel cleared its Rs. 67.96bn or over 10% debt by using proceeds it received by selling 5% stake to Qatar Foundation Endowment last month. Bharti Airtel had reported a net debt of Rs. 638.39bn as on March 31, 2013. The stock however ended weak 1%.

Peer Reliance Communications too hit an over 30-month high after it announced the demerger of its real estate business. The company continues its focus on asset monetization to reduce its balance sheet debt.

So, how should one play Bharti and Rcom going forward? IIFL Head of Research Amar Ambani recommends switching to Bharti Airtel where the risk reward remains favourable. “Considering the uncertainties surrounding the actual realisable value upon development and potential listing of Reliance Properties, we would raise our target price but still retain our sell call on Rcom given its expensive valuations.”  

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5^th July, 2013 : Comments by Amar Ambani, Head of Research, India Infoline 

The Indian equity market managed to build on Thursday’s gains extending its winning streak to the second consecutive day. The Nifty closed above 5,850 while the Sensex shut shop above the 19,400 mark, a gain of 0.5% each. The Nifty briefly touched the 5,900 mark but profit booking and weak European cues pulled it down. For the week too, the gains have been muted around 0.5% each.

Positive Asian market cues at the start of trade lifted benchmark indices. However, in afternoon trade, the Sensex shed its gains of over 150 points from the day’s high as the Indian rupee continued its slide against the dollar. Erasing all its initial gains, the rupee weakened further to 60.45 against the greenback.

Among sectoral indices, oil and gas, FMCG, metals, capital goods, banking and healthcare stocks gained. Even mid- and small-cap stocks ended with modest gains. On the other hand, the losers pack included telecom, IT and auto stocks.

In stock-specific action, IDFC, JP Associates, Jindal Steel, NMDC, Asian Paints, Bank of Baroda, ONGC, BHEL, Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank gained while GAIL India, Bharti Airtel, Lupin, ICICI Bank, M&M, Hero MotoCorp, HCL Technologies, Coal India and DLF lost out.

The advance-decline ratio marginally favoured the bulls. On the Bombay Stock Exchange, 1,201 stocks advanced against 1,125 declines, while 144 stocks remained unchanged.

Volatility, as measured by India VIX, edged higher by 0.5% to close at 18.67. It hit a day’s high of 19.01 and low of 17.75.

So, how will markets trade next week given the intense volatility? Amar Ambani, Head of Research at IIFL, sees strong resistance for the Nifty at 5,900 levels. “5900 seems to be a crucial inflexion point which might decide the further course in this rangebound market.”

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4^th July, 2013 : Comments by Amar Ambani, Head of Research, India Infoline 

5800 again; Nifty ends above 200 DMA

The Indian equity market ended on a solid note on Thursday. In fact, it closed near the day’s high with the Nifty surging past the 5,800 mark and also its 200 Daily Moving Average.

The markets opened with a positive gap in early trade and managed to maintain its momentum in the first half. However, benchmark indices got a whipping after Reserve Bank Governor D Subbarao said the central bank was not looking to protect any particular level of exchange rate but will iron out volatility.

However, strong European and Asian markets lifted sentiment in the second-half. A sudden bout of buying in IT, FMCG, telecom, realty, oil and gas and auto stocks helped the indices end near the day’s high.

The Sensex closed at 19,410, up 233 points, while the Nifty closed up 66 points at 5,837 over Wednesday’s close.

The banking index was up 0.5%, rebounding smartly from its previous day’s losses. The gainers include Bank of India (2.5%), Yes Bank (1.5%) and IndusInd Bank (1.2%).

From the banking pack, IndusInd Bank finds favour with IIFL’s Amar Ambani. He advises investors to buy the scrip.

Ambani cites diversified and granular credit profile, robust NIM trajectory and resilient asset quality to support his buy rationale. “Near-term performance outlook is very strong with margin expected to expand further.”

The advance-decline ratio favoured the bulls. On the Bombay Stock Exchange, 1,250 stocks advanced against 1,042 declines, while 138 stocks remained unchanged.

Volatility, as measured by India VIX, was down 2% at 18.58. It hit a day’s high of 19 and low of 18.

Stocks in News:

Reliance Infrastructure, HCL Technologies, ITC, Tata Power, BPCL, TCS, Tata Motors, ACC, Hindustan Unilever, Infosys and Bharti Airtel led the gainers pack while BHEL, Tata Steel, Sesa Goa, Cipla, Axis Bank, PowerGrid, Bajaj Auto, Ranbaxy, Maruti and M&M lost out.

Firstsource shot up over 11% to close at Rs. 11.60 per share after big bull Rakesh Jhunjhunwala purchased 5.14% stake in four blocks on the National Stock Exchange.

Sun Pharmaceutical gained 1.2% after the company opted out of the race to buy Sweden’s Meda Pharmaceuticals.

Bharti ended 2.1% higher to close at Rs. 301 after the company subscribed to an additional 2% equity share capital in all the four India BWA entities of Qualcomm.

Suzlon Energy gained 1.1% on Thursday after the company said it plans to raise up to $400mn via the sale of non-critical assets.

Mangalore Chemicals plunged over 10% in early trades but erased its losses to close lower by just a percent. Deepak Fertilisers has acquired 24.46% stake in the company for an undisclosed amount.

Shree Renuka Sugars is expected to start exporting white sugar from its Haldia unit on the east coast. The stock ended lower by 0.6% to close at Rs. 16.65 per share.

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3^rd July, 2013 : Comments by Amar Ambani, Head of Research, India Infoline 

Falling Re, rising crude sink Nifty below 5800

The Indian equity market ended in the red, extending its losing streak to the second consecutive day. It started weak and continued that trend with the surfeit of negative news. Any signs of a pullback from lower levels were met with huge selling pressure. The Sensex closed at 19,177, down 286 points, while the Nifty ended lower by 87 points at 5,770 over Tuesday’s close.

The weakening rupee continued to play spoilsport by falling 90 paise in trade today. It slipped below the 60 per dollar mark after hitting an intra-day low of 60.44. This is the first time since June 27 that the Indian currency has fallen below the 60 level. On June 26, it touched an all-time low of 60.76 against the dollar.

Amar Ambani, Head of Research at IIFL, sees the rupee depreciate to 63 per dollar by July-end. “Positive US factory data for May has raised concerns that the Federal Reserve may rollback its stimulus earlier than usual.”

On the global front, China’s services sector showed weak growth in June. The June services Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 53.9 from May’s 54.3. It remained above the 50 level dividing expansion from contraction.

Crude prices surged on account of political tensions in Egypt. The country, though not an oil producer, controls the Suez Canal. It is one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes through which majority of the world’s energy passes. Oil marketing companies witnessed intense selling pressure with stocks like BPCL, HPCL and IOC plummeting nearly 4%.

Among sectors, barring defensives like pharmaceuticals and FMCG, all other sectoral indices ended in the red. The top losers were realty, metals, consumer durables, oil and gas, power, and capital goods stocks.

Stocks in news:

JP Associates, Bank of Baroda, IDFC, Punjab National Bank, Sesa Goa, Tata Steel, Tata Power, SBI, DLF, Hindalco and BPCL lost out while Lupin, Jindal Steel, Sun Pharmaceutical, Ambuja Cement, ITC, HCL Technologies and Grasim gained today.

The advance-decline ratio favoured the bears. On the Bombay Stock Exchange, 1,525 stocks declined against 780 advances, while 129 stocks remained unchanged.

Volatility, as measured by India VIX, gained 3.8% to 18.91. It hit a day’s high of 19.13 and low of 17.81.

Hindustan Copper’s offer-for-sale was over-subscribed 1.18 times on Wednesday. The floor price was set at Rs. 70 per share. The stock closed at Rs. 70.20, down Rs. 2.15 or 3%.

Oil India closed at Rs. 554.30 per share, down Rs. 12.15 or 2.1%, despite the company announcing plans to invest Rs. 120bn by 2017. The state-run oil major is looking to invest in various projects in the north-east involving expansion of exploration work and diversification of business.

Tata Power ended weak at Rs. 82.80, down Rs. 3.9 or 4.5%. The company plans to tie-up funds for the 95 MW South Africa’s Tsitsikamma wind energy project, estimated to cost about Rs 1,750 crore.

Bharti Airtel surged Rs. 8.85 or 2.9% at Rs. 294 per share after the Telecom Commission enhanced the foreign direct investment limit in the sector from 74% to 100%.

However, peer Idea was down Rs. 1.20 or 0.8% while Reliance Communications closed at Rs. 131.40, up Rs. 0.45 or 0.3%.

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